MLB 9/20/25 Odds, Predictions & Free Pick

Red Sox vs Rays — Free Pick

Date: Sep 20, 2025

Why We Like It

  • Form & matchupBoston has handled Tampa well this season; contact quality + timely hitting travel.
  • Run preventionSox starter profile + cleaner bullpen lanes late give BOS a path even in a close game.
  • Situational EdgeRays’ recent home splits have been uneven; Boston has cashed in late-inning spots.

How to Play It

  • Main: Moneyline (Red Sox ML).
  • Bankroll: Standard unit; avoid chasing alt lines unless price improves pre-first pitch.

Notes

Stats • Boston has won 7 straight head-to-head matchups vs Tampa Bay this season.

Projected outcome: Slight lean to the Red Sox in a 1–2 run game; scoring in the mid-to-high single digits if bats wake up. We don't expect the Rays to score over 4 runs.

Other Games Today

Braves vs. Tigers
1:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: ATL — J. Wentz • DET — K. Montero
Market: DET -122 • Total 9
  • The Braves are on a 6-game winning streak and have scored 41 runs in their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Tigers have scored just 2 runs total over their last 3 games.
Cubs vs. Reds
6:40 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: CHI — J. Assad • CIN — Z. Littell
Market: CIN -115 • Total 9
  • Great American Ball Park plays very hitter-friendly, especially down the right field line. Reds starter Zack Littell has a decent home road split, but Cubs’ Javier Assad has been vulnerable to long balls on the road and walks, which could lead to power getting paid in this matchup.
Athletics vs. Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: ATH — L. Morales • PIT — B. Chandler
Market: ATH -113 • Total 8
  • Oakland has won 6 of their last 7 games against Pittsburgh. Also, the “Under” has hit in 7 of Oakland’s last 10 games.
Yankees vs. Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: NYY — C. Rodon • BAL — T. Sugano
Market: NYY -204 • Total 9
  • Yankees are 12–19-0 ATS in Rodón’s starts this season, but his moneyline odds favor them here. Meanwhile, Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 overall and are underdogs today, which gives some value to Baltimore's +1.5 run line.
Nationals vs. Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: WSH — C. Cavalli • NYM — N. McLean
Market: NYM -281 • Total 8.5
  • Mets rookie Nolan McLean comes in with a 4-1 record and a 1.19 ERA, with especially stingy home numbers, making him a tough assignment for the Nationals — who have an ERA over 5.00 this season.
Red Sox vs. Rays
7:05 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: BOS — K. Harrison • TB — A. Houser
Market: TB -112 • Total 8
  • Boston has won 7 straight head-to-head matchups vs Tampa Bay this season. Even though the Rays are at home, their recent home performance has been spotty, especially in clutch moments vs Boston. 
Blue Jays vs. Royals
7:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: TOR — S. Bieber • KC — N. Cameron
Market: TOR -137 • Total 8
  • Shane Bieber has gone under 5.5 hits allowed in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Padres vs. White Sox
7:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: SD — Y. Darvish • CHI — Y. Gomez
Market: SD -172 • Total 8.5
  • Yu Darvish has a bloated 5.63 ERA this season, and San Diego’s pitchers have given up 18 home runs over their last 10 games. At the same time, the White Sox offense is among the weakest in MLB (.233 AVG).
Marlins vs. Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: MIA — A. Mazur • TEX — J. Leiter
Market: TEX -163 • Total 8.5
  • The Marlins have won 8 of their last 9 games, showing strong momentum just as Texas’ playoff chances are slipping. Conversely, Rangers-home games as favorites have been a mixed bag lately.
Guardians vs. Twins
2:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: CLE — S. Cecconi • MIN — J. Ryan
Market: CLE -127 • Total 8
  • Cleveland has won 8 straight entering this game, while Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 8.
Mariners vs. Astros
7:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: SEA — G. Kirby • HOU — F. Valdez
Market: HOU -110 • Total 8
  • The Mariners have won 12 of their last 13 games.
Angels vs. Rockies
8:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: LAA — K. Hendricks • COL — G. Marquez
Market: LAA -126 • Total 11.5
  • The Rockies have allowed the most runs in MLB since June 1, especially at home, and their bullpen has been shaky. Meanwhile, the Angels have shown flashes of offense recently.
Brewers vs. Cardinals
7:15 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: MIL — C. Patrick • STL — M. Mikolas
Market: MIL -143 • Total 8.5
  • Five of the Cardinals’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line, while the Brewers’ last five road games have gone OVER.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
8:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: PHI — A. Nola • ARI — Z. Gallen
Market: ARI -118 • Total 9
  • Phillies have won 8 of their last 10 games, mostly riding offense, while Aaron Nola has a rough road record (0-5) this season and gives up a lot of long balls.
Giants vs. Dodgers
9:10 p.m. ET
🔒 Subscriber Pick

Probables: SF — K. Teng • LAD — T. Glasnow
Market: LAD -239 • Total 8.5
  • The Dodgers are 12-2 straight-up in their last 14 home games vs the Giants, and San Francisco has lost 6 of their last 7 overall.